Atlantic Storms And Hurricanes Are Not More Extreme Nor More Numerous

Atlantic Tropical Storms

The number of recent Atlantic Tropical Storms and Major Hurricanes have only increased slightly,and they have not been more severe than the Tropical Storms and Major Hurricanes of the Past.

Climate change is not the cause of the Deaths, Injuries and Property Damage from the past few years.

There have been more Deaths, Injuries and Property Damage from Hurricanes in recent years, but that is because Humans insist on doing Stupid things. Building High rise structures on the beach where Hurricanes make Landfall on a regular basis is quite foolish. Having Homes and Businesses on these Beaches is a Disaster waiting to happen.

The number of Hurricanes in the Atlantic has been highly Variable since records have been kept. The variability in Hurricane Strength might be slightly greater now than it has been in the past, but the average number is similar. Attributing this to Climate Change does not really answer the question of what is happening and why. It could be a Temporary Phenomenon rather than a long term Phenomenon.

The Historical Records of Hurricanes in the Atlantic are probably incomplete and do not reflect the Strength of the Hurricanes relative to the measurement of the Strength of the Hurricanes as measured in the past 40-50 years.

Atlantic Hurricanes

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes, sometimes Major Hurricanes, strike the Southeastern United States and the Gulf of Mexico on a regular basis. It is not a matter of IF a Hurricane or Major Hurricane is going to Strike, it is only a question of WHEN!

Atlantic Major Hurricanes 

The 1950's and 1960's had almost as many Major Hurricanes as the 2000's. The 1930's had many Major Hurricanes. Claiming that Man-Made, Human Caused, Amthropogenic Climate Change is responsible when there is an unusual series of Weather Events, is not very Scientific, and only Confuses the Real Issue. There have been many periods in the past, recent and distant, where there were similar changes in the Weather Patterns. Some are still occurring, and some were temporary changes in the Weather Patterns.

Los Angeles Rainfall Patterns Have Not Changed In 140 Years

California's recent drought was the worst drought in 1200 years. Southern California is a Semi-Arid Region, and typically receives very little rain.

Los Angeles Rainfall

The recent drought was not much different than the other droughts, low rainfall years, that have occurred in the last 140 years in the Los Angeles area. The Average Rainfall for Los Angeles is slightly less than 15 inches, but that number is Skewed Upward by the years that Los Angeles receives an extremely large amount of rain.

The rainfall in 81.6% of the last 141 years has been less than 20 inches. The 18.4% of the years that have produced more than 20 inches of rain have increased the average to a level well above the "Typical" amount of rainfall that the Los Angeles area receives.

One of the patterns that emerges from the Chart below is that every 15-25 years, Los Angeles receives less than 10 inches of rain for several years in a row, or they receive several years of less than 10 inches of rainfall, and one year of of rainfall above 10 inches. The recent 5 year Drought followed this Pattern just as the other Droughts have followed this Pattern.

Another Pattern is several years below 10 inches, and then one or two years above 15 inches. Almost one third, 29.1%, of the last 141 years have had less than 10 inches of rainfall.

The Decadal Rainfall Patterns show the same Phenomenon. Several years of Low Rainfall followed by several years of Higher Rainfall.

El Nino And La Nina

The high rainfall years are sometimes produced by an El Nino Event, but not all of the high rainfall years are caused by an El Nino Event. El Nino Years are very difficult to predict, including in the fall of the year that the conditions seem to be 'Right' for an El Nino Event. There have been years that the National Weather Service and other Weather Forecasting Services have predicted an El Nino or La Nina, but the Event did not Materialize.

The Drought years are sometimes caused by a La Nina Event, but are also caused by other phenomena. The Jet Stream being diverted North of California by a High Pressure System over Nevada, Idaho and Utah has caused many Severe Droughts, some lasting several years, in California. This type of Phenomenon has been ocurring for Thousands of Years, and is not a recent Man-Made or Human Caused Climate or Weather Event.

Claiming that the recent Drought(s) are caused by Man-Made, Human Caused Anthropogenic Climate Change is just the Politically Correct thing to say. What caused the Droughts Decades ago? What caused the Drought 80 years ago? What caused the Drought 1200 Years Ago? The Pattern of Droughts and Heavy "Recovery" Rainfall have occurred on a regular basis for the last 140 years.

California's Wildfires Are Not Any More Severe Than They Were 85 Years Ago

The number of Wildfires per year in California has decreased over the past 30 years by almost 50%.

The total number of Acres Burned in California have increased and decreased over the Decades with a range of less 50,000 Acres to 1,600,000 Acres. The increases and decreases follow the Pattern of Rainfall. Increased Rainfall promotes the growth of Grasses and Shrubs at ground level. Subsequent years that produce less rainfall, or create Drought conditions, cause the New Growth to die, and the dead plant material is Fuel for next Wildfire. If the dead plants do not burn the year that they die, they will build up over subsequent years of little rainfall, and extreme rainfall, until an Ignition source is provided. The ignition source could be natural, lightning, or it could be accidental, campfire, etc., or it could be Arson. The Source of Ignition is not important. The extremely combustible material WILL ignite eventually. The only questions are, when will it ignite and how many acres will burn?

California Wildfires Per Year

The number of California Wildfires has Decreased from a high of 13,476 in 1987, to 9,133 in 2017. The years from 2002-2016 had the fewest number of Fires per year over the past 30 years. The number of Wildfires was less than 9,000 per year for each of those years.

Years with Rainfall well above average, are followed by years with more Acres burned.

The increased Growth created by the very high rainfall creates more Fuel in the following years when the rainfall decreases back to the Yearly Average or below. High Rainfall years are quite often followed by extremely Low Rainfall years, leading to the Drying of much of the New Growth.

California Wildfire Acres Burned Per Year

The greatest number of California Wildfire Acres Burned were in the years 2007 and 2008. These were the years following the Record or near Record Rainfall throughout California in the winter of 2004-2005. The Extremely High Rainfall created significant amounts of new growth. The growth did not dry out as it usually does after a High Rainfall Year because 2004-2005 was an Extreme Event that saturated the Soil and kept the plants and undergrowth Green for a couple of years. The Rainfall Year 2006-2007 provided less than 5" of Rain, allowing the Soil to Dry and the Plants to Die, creating Very Large Amounts of Fuel for the following year's "Fire Season".

California Wildfire Acres Burned Per Fire







The Pattern of Rainfall, California Wildfire Acres Burned and California Wildfire Acres per Fire follow the same Pattern in the available Data from 1987 through 2018. This indicates that the Wildfires that California has been having are not caused by Climate Change, but are a Natural Phenomenon associated with the Mediterranean Climate that Californian's enjoy. Southern California is a Semi-Arid Region with a year of Heavy Rainfall followed by several years of Very Little Rainfall, and Drought Conditions.



Los Angeles Rainfall: 1981-2018

In the Winter of 2004-2005, most of California received Record, or Near Record, Rainfall. The following year, 2005-2006, the rainfall was only slightly below Average. This kept the Brush and "UnderGrowth" from drying out, and providing extremely Combustible Fuel.

The winter of 2006-2007, was a Record, or Near Record, low rainfall. Los Angeles rainfall was only 3.21" that year.

2004 was a year with the number of California Acres Burned well below average. 2005 was another year with the number of California Acres Burned well below average.

2006, the year after the Record, or Near Record, rainfall, the number of California Acres Burned more than Tripled.

The following two years, 2007 and 2008, the number of California Acres burned were more than FIVE TIMES the number of Acres Burned in the previous 2-3 years.

In the Late 1970's, early 1980's, the California Local and State Firefighting Agencies, and the Federal Firefighting Agencies, implemented Improved Fire Suppression Techniques. These Improved Fire Supression Techniques extinguished the Wildfires much more quickly, with far fewer Acres Burned.

This caused future problems by allowing the Undergrowth to accumulate for 15-20 years rather than the Brush in the Forests burning every 5-10 years.

This extremely high level of Combustible Materials resulted in Larger, Longer Burning Wildfires in some areas. These Larger Wildfires are not necessarily a result of Climate Change, but a result of Poor Forest Management.